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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999
 
DORA REMAINS A WELL-DEVELOPED HURRICANE WITH A 16 NM WIDE EYE AND
GOOD OUTFLOW.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT
THE HURRICANE IS PEAKING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING AT
115 KT. DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DORA MAY WEAKEN EVEN LESS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE
FORECAST OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF DORA SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
CYCLONE CONTINUING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. NHC HURRICANE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
LBAR TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE UKMET MODEL WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. 
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 14.6N 122.0W   115 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 14.7N 123.6W   110 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.9N 125.8W   105 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 128.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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