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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 11 1999
 
DORA REMAINS A WELL DEVELOPED AND SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER NEAR 20 NM AND A CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70C SURROUNDING
THE CENTER. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
CONTINUE AT 115 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING
6.1/6.2 FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE MAINLY TO GRADUALLY 
COOLING SST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...POSSIBLE ATTRIBUTABLE TO
HURRICANE EUGENE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/12...JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AS IN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER-MEAN WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
AND SO THE FORWARD SPEED OF DORA HAS BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER
36 HOURS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH P91E.
 
FARRELL/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 14.9N 125.6W   115 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 127.4W   115 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 130.3W   110 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W   105 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W    90 KTS
 
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