HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 12 1999

THE EYE OF DORA...20-25 NM IN DIAMETER...IS SURROUNDED BY RING 
OF -70C CLOUD TOPS ALTHOUGH THE RING IS NO LONGER CONTINUOUS 
AND APPEARS THINNER.  CURRENT DVORAK T# ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB THUS...THE INTENSITY OF 115 KT IS MAINTAINED. WHILE GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE...A COMPROMISE HAS BEEN CHOSEN BETWEEN
SHIPS AND THE GFDL...BRINGING DORA DOWN TO 90 KT IN 72 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13 AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE AVN MAINTAINS
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF DORA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FORECAST
TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFDL
AND BAM MEDIUM...IN KEEPING DORA ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST. 
BAM DEEP WOULD BRING IT ON A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND IN VIEW
OF THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS NOT BEEN FOLLOWED.  THE
OTHER OUTLIER IS THE UKMET...WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST FOR OVER TWO DAYS...A TURN WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
SO FAR.
 
FARRELL/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 15.3N 129.8W   115 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.4N 131.9W   110 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.6N 135.0W   110 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.8N 138.0W   105 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W    90 KTS
  
NNNN