HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999

THE EYE OF DORA IS BEGINNING TO FILL WITH CLOUD AND THE SURROUNDING
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING SLOWLY.  MORE STABLE TRADE WIND CLOUD CAN BE
SEEN ON SATELLITE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...WEAKENING IS
CONTINUING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
NOW DOWN TO 110 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIFOR AND AVN MODELS AS THE STORM MOVES ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS 140W OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AT 18 KT BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP ITS
FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THE TRACK HAS BEEN KEPT CLOSE TO THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS BUT THEN MORE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE BAM MEDIUM AS WEAKENING
REDUCES THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER LAYER STEERING CURRENTS.  THIS WILL
BRING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII IF DORA REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS.

FARRELL/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 15.5N 138.4W   110 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.6N 141.0W   105 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.8N 144.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.3N 148.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N 157.0W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN