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WTPA42 PHNL 142100
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST SAT AUG 14 1999
 
HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING THE STORM ON A
WEST TRACK. LATEST MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY GROUPED AND ARE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STORM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE AVIATION MODEL
INDICATES SHEARING FROM UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS DORA
APPROACHES 160 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/75. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK TO THE
SOUTH HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HABLUTZEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 15.2N 146.3W    70 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.2N 149.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 152.3W    60 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.3N 155.6W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 159.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N 165.5W    50 KTS