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WTPA42 PHNL 152100
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST SUN AUG 15 1999

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND MOTION DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 95 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA
FROM AIR FORCE RESERVES INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES. THEREFORE...WE
EXPECT THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF SOUTH
POINT ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH BY 16/0600Z OR 2000 HST THIS EVENING.
 
AVIATION MODELS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT A CONTINUE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
TIGHTLY GROUPED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
TRACKS. HABLUTZEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 15.7N 153.3W    95 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N 155.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 159.2W    90 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N 162.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 166.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 19.0N 172.5W    70 KTS