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WTPA42 PHNL 180300
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST TUE AUG 17 1999
 
DORA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
STORM IS BECOMING ELONGATED AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF UPPER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAKENING CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL CLASSIFY THE STORM AS A HURRICANE. THE
CURRENT TRACK BRINGS DORA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO
JOHNSTON ISLAND BY 2000 HST/0600Z AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 60 NAUTICAL MILES/70 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH.
LATEST REPORTS FROM THE ARC...AUTOMATIC REMOTE COLLECTOR...ON
JOHNTSTON ISLAND HAS NOT SHOWN ANY INCREASE IN WIND AS OF 2 PM
HST...BUT PRESSURES HAVE BEGUN TO FALL. THE CONTINUED MOVEMENT
NEAR 17 KT WILL RESULT IN A SUDDEN AND POWERFUL SWELL/SURF SURGE AT
JOHNSTON.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
BAMD...DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL.
 
HABLUTZEL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 15.6N 168.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 171.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N 174.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.2N 178.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 178.0E    50 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 171.0E    50 KTS