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WTPA42 PHNL 182100
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST WED AUG 18 1999
 
DORA IS NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WITHIN 24
HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAIN TROPICAL NUMBERS OF
4.0...WHICH EQUATES TO 65 KNOTS. LATEST AVIATION MODELS MAINTAIN A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MOVING IN A
GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT NORTH
COMPONENT. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS FAIRLY
CONSTANT. AS A RESULT...DORA WILL BE A HURRICANE/TYPHOON FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE
INTENSITY MODEL.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/19. THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE P91E...WHICH IS THE PACIFIC
VERSION OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FOR THE ATLANTIC.

HABLUTZEL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 16.4N 174.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N 177.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.4N 179.4E    65 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.2N 176.6E    65 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N 174.0E    65 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 169.0E    65 KTS