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WTPA42 PHNL 191500
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST THU AUG 19 1999
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE DORA A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS APPROACH TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS GRADUALLY BECOME WEST
NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO TURN EVEN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE FOREWARD MOVEMENT HAS ALSO SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER
THIS PERIOD. THE MODEL TRACKS ARE WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW
RANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK RUNS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF ALL THE MODELS. COOLER WATERS AWAITS FURTHER WEST AND
THUS WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF WEAKENING IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
KAWAMOTO
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 17.4N 178.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 179.9E    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N 177.8E    65 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 175.8E    65 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.9N 174.1E    60 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 26.6N 171.1E    55 KTS