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WTPA42 PHNL 192100
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST THU AUG 19 1999
 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM BOTH SAB AND PHNL KEEP DORA
AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE SOON TO BE TYPHOON. MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS
DIFFER WITH SHFR SLOWLY WEAKENING AND GFDL INTENSIFYING DORA. SEEING
AS DORA IS HEADED TOWARDS WARMER SSTS...WILL KEEP DORA AT 65 KNOTS.
SHEARING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PROBLEM AT PRESENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 WHICH IS SLOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED TURNING DORA TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD LOWER PRESSURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND IS CLOSEST TO BAMM AND BAMD. SINCE DORA WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE DATELINE AT 00Z...CPHC WILL WRITE THE 00Z FORECAST
AND JTWC WILL WRITE THE 06Z FORECAST. CRAIG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 17.5N 179.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 179.0E    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.1N 176.9E    65 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.6N 174.6E    65 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 22.4N 172.4E    65 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 26.7N 168.0E    65 KTS