HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  AS IN THE CASE OF DORA...GFDL WEAKENS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHEN IT...BUT ONLY TO 64
KNOTS. INTENSIFICATION IS MAINLY DUE TO LOW SHEAR AND WARM
WATERS...ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS OUTPUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
BRINGS EUGENE TO 60 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/08.  ALL MODELS EXCEPT
NOGAPS...WHICH MAINTAINS EUGENE MEANDERING... SUGGEST A WEST AND
EVEN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.  THIS MOTION IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE
A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM
INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 13.7N 124.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 14.0N 125.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N 127.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 128.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 130.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 15.0N 134.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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