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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM GIVING THE APPEARANCE OF THE FORMATION OF A BANDING TYPE EYE.
IF THE TREND CONTINUES...EUGENE MAY INTENSIFY FASTER THAN 
ANTICIPATED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  THIS BASED ON SHIPS
MODEL...AND THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR AND WARM SST. HOWEVER...
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR IS ALONG THE FUTURE PATH OF THE STORM.  THIS
IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  
 
INITIAL NOTION IS 285/09.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF EUGENE...THEREFORE A TRACK MORE TO WEST
IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 14.0N 124.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 14.4N 126.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 14.8N 127.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 15.5N 132.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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