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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999

...CORRECTION...36-HOUR FORECAST LATITUDE IS 15.6N.
 
SATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND MIAMI ARE BOTH 3.5.  THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL...AND THIS
RELATIVELY COMPACT STORM MAY MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF EUGENE...THEREFORE A TRACK MORE TO WEST
IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 14.5N 125.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 127.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.5N 129.3W    65 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 15.6N 131.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 15.6N 133.4W    70 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 15.5N 137.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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