HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE STORM IS
STEERED BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE STORM BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 55 KNOTS
AND THE FORECAST ALSO REMAINS THE SAME...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN
24 HOURS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 14.5N 126.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 14.8N 128.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.3N 129.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 15.4N 131.9W    70 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 138.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN