HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999

THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
MORE BANDING FEATURES ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  HOWEVER DVORAK T-NUMBERS
REMAIN AT 3.5 AT THIS TIME...SO CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55
KNOTS.  EUGENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...WHICH IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER MARGINAL OCEAN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING
SUBSTANTIALLY.

MOTION IS ABOUT 285/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THEREFORE A MAINLY
WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS INDICATED.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL
LBAR...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT FAST.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 14.7N 127.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 129.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.3N 131.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 15.5N 135.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 139.5W    65 KTS
 
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