HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 09 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A STRONG RIDGE HOLDING
TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON THIS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND MOTION IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK.
 
WITH A WELL DEFINED SMALL EYE FEATURE ON INFRARED IMAGERY...DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO 90 KNOTS AND THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THIS VALUE...THE SAME STRENGTH
AS DORA AND AS THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE 260 DEGREE HEADING WILL KEEP
EUGENE OVER FAIRLY WARM SSTS AND THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO 100
KNOTS IN 12 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS FORECAST MODEL AND EARLIER
GUIDANCE.
 
FARRELL/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 14.2N 131.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.0N 133.4W   100 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 14.0N 135.6W   100 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.0N 138.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 14.2N 140.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 15.5N 145.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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