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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A STRONG RIDGE HOLDING
TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE GFDL AS WELL AS THE DEEP AND
MEDIUM BAM MOVE THE STORM NORTH OF WEST AFTER 48 HOURS...AS EUGENE
NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. 
 
WITH A WELL DEFINED SMALL EYE FEATURE ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATING
A STRONG T5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CURRENT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS. THE FORECAST HEADING OF 270 DEGREES WILL KEEP
EUGENE OVER FAIRLY WARM SSTS AND THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO 100
KNOTS IN 12 HOURS.
 
FARRELL/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 14.0N 132.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.0N 134.5W   100 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.0N 137.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 14.5N 142.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.5N 146.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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