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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999
 
THE EYE OF EUGENE HAS DISAPPEARED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
SUGGESTING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS STOPPED. THIS IS RATHER PUZZLING
GIVEN THAT THE STORM HAS COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS AND GOOD CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 90...102...AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

SINCE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR EUGENE TO BE WEAKENING
YET...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLER WATER SHOULD
CAUSE EUGENE TO WEAKEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. EUGENE SHOULD TRACK
WESTWARD FOR 24-36 HOURS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED
BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 14.1N 134.1W    95 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.1N 135.8W   100 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.2N 138.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 14.6N 140.9W    95 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 147.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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