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WTPA43 PHNL 111430
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST WED AUG 11 1999

EUGENE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE PAST 6 HOURS...LOSING MOST OF ITS
DEEP CONVECTION THEN HAVING THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAP ONCE AGAIN
AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH FLANKS OF THE LLCC. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EUGENE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR WHICH IS HAMPERING ANY STRENGTHENING. THE MODEST SHEARING PLUS
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR
A SLOW WEAKENING OF EUGENE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
IS STILL AT 75 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. THE FORECAST MORE OR LESS KEEPS EUGENE ON
A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A DUE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE BAMD
GUIDANCE IS CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE
AIDS ARE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LBAR...ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED. LBAR
TAKE EUGENE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK. CRAIG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 13.9N 141.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.2N 143.3W    70 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.6N 145.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N 148.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.5N 151.2W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.1N 156.2W    55 KTS