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WTPA43 PHNL 112100
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST WED AUG 11 1999

DEEP CONVECTION IS AGAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION
CENTER. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY REMAINS AT 4.5 AND...THEREFORE...THE
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS. ALL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...
EXCEPT FOR THE LBAR...WHICH STILL TAKES THE STORM ON A NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK. EUGENE IS IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
PREVENTING ANY STRENGTHENING. WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72
HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HABLUTZEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 14.0N 142.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.3N 143.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.7N 146.4W    65 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 148.8W    60 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 151.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 157.0W    50 KTS