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WTPA43 PHNL 110300
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST WED AUG 11 1999

HURRICANE EUGENE CONTINUES ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TRACK AND
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT
CONVECTION IS AGAIN GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF DECAY AFTER A MORNING
PEAK. WHETHER THIS ACTUALLY MEANS EUGENE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
FURTHER IS UNCERTAIN. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER EUGENE IS NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE 26 DEG CELSIUS
ISOTHERM UNTIL SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED WEST OF 150W.
AS A RESULT EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY.

CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...T3.5/4.0 FROM SAB AND T4.0/4.5
FROM THE CPHC. LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 14.1N 143.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.2N 144.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 146.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 149.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N 151.7W    60 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 157.7W    55 KTS