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WTPA43 PHNL 121430
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST THU AUG 12 1999
 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF EUGENE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE LAST TWO SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW SOME WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT EUGENE IS   
MORE SYMETRICAL WITH THE COLDEST TOPS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
SYSTEM. AN EYE CONTINUES TO HIDE FROM THE SATELLITE CAMERA HOWEVER.
SINCE IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEARING IS MINIMAL...WILL HOLD OFF
ON WEAKENING EUGENE UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS AS SEAS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE LAST FORECAST...MOVING EUGENE ON A WEST
NORTHWEST THEN WEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS
CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH DROPS
EUGENE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PUTS EUGENE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GROUP AND CLOSEST TO BAMD. CRAIG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 14.7N 145.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N 147.4W    75 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.6N 149.8W    70 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 152.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.2N 154.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.6N 160.2W    55 KTS