HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

WTPA43 PHNL 130300
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST THU AUG 12 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVES SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS NOW HEADING DUE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTION...THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND THE SYSTEM HAS NOW BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL STORM. PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHEARING AHEAD OF THE
STORM.  AS A RESULT...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TAKES EUGENE 250 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII
BY 1400 HST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO
BE TIGHTLY GROUPED IN KEEPING THE STORM SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. HABLUTZEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 14.7N 147.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 149.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.9N 151.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.1N 154.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 15.2N 156.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 161.0W    35 KTS