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WTPA43 PHNL 131500
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST FRI AUG 13 1999
 
MOST DYNAMIC MODELS PROJECT AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT
LED BY LBAR AND GFDL. HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN A MORE CONSERVATIVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATH... NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTWARD. RIDGING NORTH OF
THE STORM ALTHO WEAKENING WILL STILL REMAIN FIRM AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
KEEPING THE ISLANDS OUT OF HARMS WAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
OBSCURE THE CENTER OF EUGENE BUT AIRCRAFT RECON ADDS CONFIDENCE
TO THE STORMS LOCATION. ALTHO HI LEVEL SHEARING IS VIRTUALLY
NONEXISTENT A TRACK THRU SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER STILL FAVORS A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND.  MATSUDA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 14.7N 150.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.7N 151.9W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.7N 154.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N 157.9W    40 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.7N 160.9W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 14.7N 167.0W    35 KTS