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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 1999
 
DEPRESSION NINE-E CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST...BASED ON SHIPS AND SHIFOR MODELS...REMAINS MUCH THE SAME
AS THE PREVIOUS...SHOWING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.

THE DEPRESSION CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED NOW THAT VISIBLE PICTURES
ARE AVAILABLE.  THE LATEST POSITION FOR THE DEPRESSION SHOWS THAT IT
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW AT 280/3.  THIS SLOWING MAY INDICATE THE TURN TOWARD
THE WEST...AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE
SYSTEM ALMOST DUE WEST AND MOVES IT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 14.8N 119.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.9N 119.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 121.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 122.8W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 127.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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