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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 17 1999
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS SLOWLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH STRONG CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB
AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE SHEARED APPEARANCE AND THE
UPCOMING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM...THE SYSTEM WILL STAY A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS BELIEVED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION 295/10. AVN MODEL BASED
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A TURN TO
THE WEST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...WHICH TURN THE
DEPRESSION EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE
TO THESE MODELS RESPONDING TO A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AVN GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY FASTER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SHEAR
DECREASES. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD AGAIN SLOW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
GRADUALLY COOLER WATER AFTER 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY
INTENSIFY FASTER THAN FORECAST WHEN THE SHEAR DECREASES. 
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 13.6N 115.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 117.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 118.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 122.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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