HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 18 1999
 
WHILE FERNANDA REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...THE SHEAR HAS
DECREASED TO THE POINT WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. WHILE THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THE
PAST FEW HOURS...THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHICH ARE THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS TRACK THAN 6 HOURS AGO...AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ARE
NOW INDICATING A SLOW WESTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO...BUT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW INDICATE
INDICATE 15 KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR FERNANDA. WITH THE
AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECASTING A FURTHER DECREASE IN THE
SHEAR...FERNANDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
AND BRINGS FERNANDA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. SOME
WEAKENING IS LIKLEY AFTER 48 HOURS AS SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 25C.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 15.8N 120.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.4N 121.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 123.9W    65 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 126.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 133.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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