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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 18 1999

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO
A STRONG CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN ABOUT 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. FERNANDA HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING BEFORE REACHING COOL WATER IN 36 HOURS OR SO. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
GRADUAL TURN MORE TO WEST SHOULD BEGIN IN 36 HOURS AS A STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FERNANDA
SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 16.2N 121.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.7N 122.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.0N 125.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 127.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 129.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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