HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 19 1999
 
THERE IS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT
OUTFLOW IS WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS SUGGESTS
SOME EASTERLY SHEARING.  DEEPER CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE...AND IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED. 
NONETHELESS...DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW.  ALTHOUGH THE
SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF
FERNANDA...AND MARGINAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES.

VISIBLE FIXES ARE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OVERNIGHT POSITION
ESTIMATES...SO THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY.  INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK
IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM TRACK...AND IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A
LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 17.0N 123.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.4N 125.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 127.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N 136.5W    40 KTS
 
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