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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 19 1999
 
FERNANDA APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW ON A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED
DUE TO SHEAR.   INITIAL INTENSTY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT.
HOWEVER...SINCE NEITHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OR SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH...ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.

NOW THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED AND VISIBLE...IT HAS BEEN BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
270/06.  A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THAN IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES.  THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS FERNANDA BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE.

LARSON/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 16.7N 123.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 124.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 131.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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