HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
...BUT WITH ONLY MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THE
SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE TRACK IS
BETWEEN 25 AND 26C...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE WARMER IF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA WILL ALLOW THE GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE.  SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPROACHES THE ANTICYCLONE.  FORECAST TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 16.5N 124.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 129.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 131.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 136.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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