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ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999 CORRECTI0N...ADD AUTHORS NAME THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED 500 NB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA...AS SEEN IN THE 48 HOUR FORECAST OF THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE INITIAL MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD SIGNAL MENTIONED ABOVE. A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE AFWA ESTIMATE IS LESS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 35 KTS. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE STORM OVER WARM SSTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW...SO THIS SYSTEM COULD PERSIST FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WEAKENING THE STORM TO A DEPRESSION AT 36 HOURS. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 16.5N 125.1W 35 KTS 12HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 126.1W 35 KTS 24HR VT 21/1200Z 16.4N 127.7W 35 KTS 36HR VT 22/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W 30 KTS 48HR VT 22/1200Z 15.9N 131.6W 30 KTS 72HR VT 23/1200Z 15.5N 135.5W 30 KTS NNNN