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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER AND THE STORM
HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW ESTIMATED
TO BE MOVING 255/07.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR 72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THE GFDL...UKMET
...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ALL SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER.

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AND CONTINUES TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED IN SIX HOURS AND RECENT SSM/I WIND SPEED
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS SUGGEST HIGHER WIND SPEEDS UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE AREA.  SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING ONLY SLIGHT
WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN SUGGESTS
STRENGTHENING AS THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND
LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE 34 KNOTS WIND RADII ARE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON 14-15Z SSM/I
WIND SPEED ESTIMATES.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 16.0N 125.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.7N 127.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.3N 128.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.9N 129.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 14.6N 131.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 134.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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