HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH OCCASIONAL FLARE-UPS OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  LOW
TO MID LEVEL STEERING SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO PERSIST.  THIS MOTION WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE.  THIS FORECAST BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 15.4N 128.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 129.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.7N 131.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 133.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 135.1W    30 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 138.5W    25 KTS
 
 
NNNN