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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
FERNANDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A WELL DEFINED
LOW-TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF
CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
PERSIST.  THIS MOTION WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATER...BUT EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW GRADUAL
WEAKENING TO OCCUR.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 14.8N 129.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.4N 130.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.0N 131.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N 132.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 134.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 137.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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