HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 06 1999
 
GREG IS NEARING HURRCIANE STRENGTH. THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS
INDICATES AN EYE FORMING...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 55-60 KT AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE SET TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND GREG WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...IF IT IS NOT ONE
ALREADY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO THE 12 HOUR MOTION OF 300/9...ALTHOUGH
THE SHORT TERM MOTION MAY BE MORE WESTERLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N124W. THE MEXICAN RIDGE
FAVORS A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NHC
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHFITED SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE MORE
WESTERLY MOTION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...GREG WILL BE WEAKENING
OVER COLD WATER BY THAT TIME...SO THE LOW MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN
EFFECT.
 
GREG CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW...SO
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATER...WHICH
STARTS AT ABOUT 110W. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WIND RADII...AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINIES IN BOTH.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 21.2N 108.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.9N 109.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 22.7N 110.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W    35 KTS
 
 
NNNN