HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 07 1999

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT...AND LATEST RADAR IMAGES FROM
LOS CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS NOT YET PASSED THE LONGITUDE
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE EYEWALL APPEARS OPEN ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE...SO STRONGEST WEATHER EFFECTS ARE ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE EYE AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ROTATING AROUND TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IF THIS OCCURS...CONDITIONS IN
THE CABO SAN LUCAS AREA COULD WORSEN. 

GREG IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AS IT WAS ON
MONDAY..WITH LESS DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL.  BUT THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
STILL GIVES A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.  NOT FAR TO
THE WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THEREFORE ONCE THE CENTER MOVES A FEW DEGREES
FARTHER WESTWARD...GREG WILL ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS. 
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. A
LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W COULD
CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT
THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THIS LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME
AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE RESPONDING MORE TO LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC STEERING IN 2-3 DAYS.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 22.3N 109.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 22.9N 110.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 23.3N 111.9W    60 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.6N 113.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N 114.3W    40 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W    25 KTS
 
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