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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 08 1999
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 35 AND 30
KT...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING.  WITHOUT VISIBLE
IMAGERY I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP GREG TO A DEPRESSION...BUT I EXPECT
TO BE ABLE TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR
AND COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.   

SATELLITE LOCATION ESTIMATES WERE ABOUT 45 NM APART THIS MORNING SO
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.  MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/5.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM.

MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LARGE WAVES...THE
WATCH/WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW. 
IF GREG IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON THEN THE
WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 22.9N 111.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N 112.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 23.1N 113.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.4N 115.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     11/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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