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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 1999

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
MUCH CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND BETTER DEFINED. IN
ADDITION...SHIPS IN THE AREA INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW ENOUGH
TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE OCEAN IS WARM
BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

WE DO NOT HAVE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION BUT BEST
ESTIMATE IS 295/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE UK MODEL AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH FROM THE MEXICAN
COAST THAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
  
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1600Z 16.2N 109.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 109.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N 115.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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