HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 1999

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN A FORMATIVE STAGE AND IT DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/05. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ENSEMBLE. 

THE OCEAN IS WARM BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 16.1N 109.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 110.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 112.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN