HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 1999

THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIMARILY
ON SSMI IMAGES. SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS AND ONLY A
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
 
INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/06.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HALF OF THE MODELS TAKE
HILARY WESTWARD AND THE OTHER HALF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFDL
MOVES HILARY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS BASED ON A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING
HILARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 16.5N 112.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.9N 113.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N 116.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N 117.5W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN