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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN HILARY OVER THE PAST 6 HRS.
THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH STARTED AROUND
02Z HAS PERSISTED ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO.  THE MOST RECENT TRMM 85GHZ DATA SHOWED A PARTIAL
EYEWALL.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 45 KT
WHILE SAB AND AFGW ARE BOTH 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 50 KT. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN LINE WITH
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT HILARY HAS CONTINUED
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY HEADING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 325/6 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE
NHC TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL MODEL P91E...
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS 
A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE SYSTEM
POSES NO THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 17.5N 112.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.2N 113.1W    55 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 19.2N 113.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.1N 114.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N 116.5W    35 KTS
 
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