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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999

LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SHOW A MOTION TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...340/8.  THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HILARY WILL BE STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BAJA TO WARRANT A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE OUT TO 55 KNOTS.  THERE
IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HILARY TO STRENGTHEN. 
HOWEVER THE MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING HILARY OVER
COOLER WATER SOON...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 19.4N 113.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 20.3N 113.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N 114.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 116.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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