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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999

DATA T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CORRESPONDING TO 65
KNOTS.  A BANDING-TYPE EYE FEATURE IS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES.  THUS HILARY IS BEING UPGRADED AND IT IS THE
SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON.  SINCE MUCH
COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO
BEGIN VERY SOON.  IN FACT...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING
OVER 21-22 DEG C WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...345/10...IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
BEFORE.  AS INDICATED EARLIER...HILARY IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY
THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME...AS THE CYCLONE
BECOMES WEAKER AND STEERED MORE BY THE SHALLOWER-LAYER FLOW.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HILARY.

PASCH
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 20.3N 113.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 21.7N 113.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 23.4N 114.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.8N 114.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     22/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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