![]() |
HOME |
ACTIVE CYCLONES |
FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT TPC | RECONNAISSANCE |
---|
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999 THE BANDING EYE FEATURE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES DURING THE DAY HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH RECENT IR IMAGES SHOWED A WARM SPOT WITHIN THE CDO. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 24 HRS WITH INCREASED SYMMETRY AND EXPANSE OF DEEP CONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 65 KT...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND DISSIPATING OVER 21-22 DEG C WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11 KT. HILARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE 12-36 HRS IN RESPONSE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT BEYOND 36 HRS...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES WEAKER AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION...I.D. DGSR...WHICH REPORTED 37 KT AND 19 FT SEAS ABOUT 105 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 21.4N 113.7W 65 KTS 12HR VT 20/1200Z 22.7N 114.2W 60 KTS 24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W 50 KTS 36HR VT 21/1200Z 25.7N 115.4W 35 KTS 48HR VT 22/0000Z 27.0N 116.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 23/0000Z 29.0N 118.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN