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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 20 1999
 
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT HILARY MAY HAVE REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY EARLIER THIS EVENING...AS THE T NUMBER FROM SAB IS
DOWN TO 3.5...55 KT.  HOWEVER...CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA ARE STILL 4.0 SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT. 
HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER 21-22 DEG C WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10 KT.  HILARY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.
GUIDANCE OTHER THAN THE BAM MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 22.3N 114.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N 115.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 26.1N 116.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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