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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 08 1999

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SABA ARE T2.5 SO THE DEPRESSION IS
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN 12 HOURS WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE COOLER
WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

WITH ANY NEWLY-FORMED CIRCULATION THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...
BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 360/3.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
IMMEDIATE LEFT TURN KEEPING THE CYCLONE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE
CURRENT MOTION REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST...AND A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IF THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN DOES
NOT MATERIALIZE SOON.
 
FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 17.7N 105.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 18.4N 105.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 18.9N 106.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.3N 107.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N 114.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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