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ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 09 1999 RADAR DATA FROM CUYUTLAN MEXICO THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT IRWIN CONTINUES TO TURN AND IS NOW MOVING AT 285/3. IF THIS MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST CONTINUES THEN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IRWIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL. MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS FASTER TO THE WEST. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS THAT IRWIN WILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE SHEAR LESSENS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SHIPS. AFTER 36 HOURS...COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION AND SPIN DOWN THE VORTEX. FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 18.8N 106.3W 45 KTS 12HR VT 10/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W 50 KTS 24HR VT 10/1200Z 19.2N 107.8W 55 KTS 36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.4N 109.2W 55 KTS 48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 12/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W 45 KTS NNNN