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HURRICANE BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0399
1500Z SAT AUG 21 1999
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA SOUTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  94.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  12 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO  95 KT
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW
34 KT.......100NE 110SE  45SW  60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 100SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  94.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  94.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.4N  95.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  15NW
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW
34 KT...100NE 110SE  45SW  60NW
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.2N  96.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N  97.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  94.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N  99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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