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HURRICANE BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0399
0900Z SUN AUG 22 1999
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO TO PORT
OCONNOR TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM EAST OF PORT OCONNOR TO
FREEPORT.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF TAMPICO.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM LA PESCA SOUTHWARD TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  95.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW
34 KT....... 85NE  75SE  50SW  60NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE  75SW  75NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  95.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  95.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.6N  96.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW
34 KT... 85NE  75SE  50SW  60NW
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N  96.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N  97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  95.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N  98.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.3N  99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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